Hi Wolf,
I have no personal desire to pontificate however to be a good sport I'll try to rationalize a guess at this quarter. Starting with .15 from Q1, I'd say, +.03 for increasing capacity showing up, +.02 for Q2, Q2 seems to be the strongest quarter in the last couple of years, +.01 for shifts in product mix, +.02 for new product influence and overall demand influences, -.01 for general mfging turmoil caused by increasing pressure to keep up with increasing demand and breaking in the new equipment new procedures,etc , -.01 tactical downward adjustment due to hedging for Q3 vs general stock market conditions for semiconductor sector. So that works out to 15+3+2+1+2-1-1= .21
Now regarding another issue...I've seen cheerleading and hype used
in other areas for what appears to be desire to help their favorite stock along. I propose a different focus with the same goal. There is an old market adage: the market climbs a wall of worry. Assigning this to a particular stock seems reasonable so herewith is my initial list of hurdles for this stock to climb roughly organized by periodicy of reoccurance of the worry:
Occasional - once in a Blue Moon:
Is communications a passing fad ?
Is tech stock investing just a phase ?
Will that darn Everready bunny ever die ?
Will this market ever top out and start a downhill slide ?
Is there another comet lurking out there in the Oort belt with Earth's name on it ?
Will the Seti project ever succeed ? (Search for Extra-Terestrial Intelligence.)
Will there be a Democrat in the White House come January ?
Will there be a Republican in the White House come January ?
Will Ross Perot be in the White House come January ?
Will the White House lights be on with nobody home ?
Will the baby boomers all pull their retirement money out on the same day ?
Will Seti someday pick up a black and white or perhaps green and rust colored signal faintly reminiscent of a couple alligator-like creatures acting out an old I Love Lucy routine ?
Will the USGS discover that Silicon Valley is due a mega-quake Richter 200ish jolt some time later this year ?
Daily to Frequent ponderings:
Will this stock return to 7 ? corollary: up to 14 ?
Is that really a reverse head and shoulders pattern in the long term chart ?
Will all the key management decide to resign en mass and form a wine-making cooperative in Monterey County ?
Will there be another grand convergence leading to NASDAQ deciding to put their plans off till the 22nd century ?
Will the IRS tax capital gains 100% for deficit reduction purposes ? Will Atmel target every Xicor customer and be successful ?
Will Magellan's new manager publicly declare his policy of shorting all tech for the forseeable future ?
Stream of Consciousness Worries:
Is it up an 1/8 ? Is it down an 1/8 ?
Is it still at the same price ?
Is the volume too small for this time of day ?
If it goes up again will I get that itch to sell again too soon ?
How long can this bull run go ? Is 15 to high ? 20 ? 30 ? 125 ?
Is the IRS monitoring my every trade ?
Will some sharp hacker convert all my street held stock in to his/her name ?
Has that already happened ?
Will Soloman put out an Alert that they made a clerical error, it was supposed to be Xilinx not Xicor that was the Strong Buy ?
This is by no means complete, please feel free to contribute...
together we can worry this thing up quite a wall.
Regards, Mike |
