I have a PC with Windows 95. It runs Microsoft Internet Explorer 5.5, Microsoft Outlook Express, Microsoft Netmeeting, Microsoft Frontpage Express. I paid a Windows 95 license some 5 years ago, and I can use cutting-edge Microsoft technology and I don't have to pay for it. Nice.
I can also download Microsoft Data Access Components and DirectX in the newest version and run it. Who needs Windows 98?
.Net technologies rely heavily on SOAP and XML. This works fine on Linux with no Microsoft software installed. As long as I don't get Microsoft software or services, I suspect I don't have to pay Microsoft - am I right? Yes, I am.
I don't believe Microsoft wants the whole world to upgrade to Windows 2002 before .Net will work, so they have to choose between distributing free software to existing Windows installations, or charge a fee for all Windows installations that wants to run .Net software. The last version will make .Net an alternative to 3rd party software, not make it something widely used.
So I suspect that the core technologies of .Net will be free for existing Windows users, just like Microsoft Internet Explorer, ADO etc.
Since Windows ME and Windows 95 are so alike in their internal structure, there is no reason to make software for Windows ME, that will not run on Windows 95. This is also a reason, why companies don't see much benefit in replacing Windows 95, and this will be so for at least 5-7 years. Windows 95 without Internet Explorer is still our main test platform in our company, with NT 4.0 SP 3 coming as number two. Windows 2000 hasn't been much tested on, yet, since none of our customers dare to make the switch from NT.
If Microsoft has to earn money in the future, they must sell subscriptions to something. There is no doubt about that. But subscriptions will give MSFT more competition and smaller market share, so the market really has to grow a lot to satisfy the current stock price.
Did you see the initiative to make a free Windows alternative? It's based on the APIs for Linux that makes Linux run Windows software. This will probably end up with the most embedded-system friendly Windows version ever, with no licenses for Microsoft... So "Windows NT Embedded" will get fierce competition, Windows CE already has competition, and Microsoft still earns most of their money on PC sales. |
