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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: UnBelievable who wrote (9818)8/9/2000 6:03:09 PM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
Fun With Numbers
or
How I Learned To Not Be Afraid and
Love The Bubble

Do ya ever wonder whether a day like today points to further weakness? I mean, big gap up and then flush... exhaustion. What has happened in such situations in the recent past?

Using the composite, from Jan/99 to July 28/00, we get this:

Number of days with gap-ups
                   of 1% or more:      89
Number of these days that ended
   (O->C) less than .25% and were
   not followed by another gap up:     12
Number of times following such
           days that we were down:     10
Average size of these down moves:      3.1%

The middle clause is a little tortured, but it catches runs of gaps. A gap-up is considered to be a gap of more than .25%.

So, if tomorrow we do not gap-up by more than .25% there is an awfully good chance we will have a big down day.

Seems too good to be true. Will double-check...
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