Looks like you are starting to "get it". The problem with WCDMA is that there're way too many "distractions" in that direction.
I think you have the wrong idea of what I "get". The issue I am concerned about is not whether W-CDMA will soon be ready for primetime from a technological perspective; but rather, what the consequences will be of the demands for capital on the part of carriers. I will leave the alphabet soup geekspeak to the engineering nerds. Those who want to invest well need to follow the money.
Carriers in this country already have an enormous invested asset base while carrying tremendous debt and losing tons of money. AWE, PCS, and NXTL alone have capex of 9BB this year and more of same next. US Govt. hopes to raise an additional 70BB from spectrum auctions...even as the carrying cost of existing spectrum is some 17BB. Where do you think the money for this new stuff is going to come? Mostly from corporate issuance (NXTL had a huge secondary last fall, but may not find the equity markets so inviting next time 'round). The problem is, the sums are so massive, and are occurring simultaneously in so many parts of the globe, that it is likely to affect the entire market for corporate debt. This is seen in the widening spreads between govt. and corporate issues, both in the US and in Europe.
Ironically, the governments welcome these huge windfalls as a chance to whittle down domestic debt without gutting the taxpayers. But what's good for Uncle Sam is bad for Ma Bell and her ilk. The 70BB spectrum bill comes before the first 3G base station has been installed. It is too bad they don't do a beauty contest and basically give away the licenses, because nobody's going to have any money to build anything after the auctions. The other thing that's too bad is that everybody's not operating on the same standard, which would enable all kinds of economies of scale that are not currently being obtained in the US.* The point of all this is that slower rollouts will translate into delayed orders for equipment makers. Royalty shops are last in line.
* As an afterthought, this may account for a good part of W-CDMA's momentum (in addition to the oft-cited global roaming ability). |
