Horoscope
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Welcome to August, the month that has hosted many stock-market turning points in the past. The low in 1982 came in this month, as did the high in 1987. Check past price graphs and you will see the turning points. In addition, if we average together the market performance year-by-year (the annual cycle), then there is a high, on average, in August. In fact, if we average together the one, four, and ten-year cycles, then we get a peak this month. Looking at the Dow another way, we employ the Bradley indicator.
Donald Bradley wrote a book in 1949 entitled The Stock Market Barometer and How to Use It. The method involved calculating weighted hits. That is, Bradley determined transiting aspects and then assigned positive and negative values to each aspect. This worked fine in the period preceding 1949, but has had a spotty record since. There are several reasons for this. First, about a third of Bradley's weights were incorrect in the sense that they made the market move up rather than down, or vice-versa. Of course, I had the benefit of a PC and more data than Bradley did. In addition, Bradley did not utilize the Node, which I did. If we ask the Bradley model to predict whether the Dow would be up or down on a monthly basis, I found that his model was correct 48% of the time. After adding in the Node and correcting the weights, the accuracy rose to 60%. Employing the Bradley model in 2000, we find that one model projects a high in July while the other pinpoints August. Using other techniques, we can zero in on the 26th-29th as a possible high, followed by a weak September.
Given this confirmation between the forecasting methods, a defensive position seems warranted. Sell into strength and sit on the sidelines in September. The market has, on average, fallen after a Jupiter-Pluto opposition such as the one that falls on September 4. The Sun makes a T-square with this pair on the 2nd. This will likely be the high of the month of September. Let's look at some stocks. Dow component Caterpillar (CAT-12/2/29) is hit by the Jupiter-Pluto opposition. Determining direction is tough here; it does appear to be a high. The important point to remember is that the stock will change direction now. Coca Cola (KO-9/26/24) will have retrograding Uranus opposing the Venus-Midheaven conjunction. Look for an unexpected development to terminate any uptrend here. Alcoa (AA-6/11/51) will have Uranus opposite the Ascendant through the fall. This will reverse the share price. Alcan (AL-5/31/50) will have the Jupiter-Pluto opposition on its natal Sun-Moon opposition. This could run the stock up this month with a high next month. Pluto usually brings takeover rumors. Note that its aluminum brethren, Alcoa, is also aspected, so this group will likely be very active.
Uranus is backing over 18° Aquarius and will station at 17° Aquarius in late October. This degree has proven important in the horoscopes of NASDAQ and Internet stocks. The direct transit coincided with a big run up earlier in the year. If the market does turn weak here, then we will likely see a peak in these stocks along with the rest of the market. The low may be in October. A pair of tech stocks jump out on our planetary screen. One is Silicon Graphics (SGI-2/6/90), which will have Uranus on its Sun square natal Pluto. The progressed MC will be conjunct natal Saturn on September 3, so we will likely hear about some substantial problems that will send SGI down. Dallas Semi (DS-3/19/90) will have Uranus on the MC square Pluto. Progressed Mars will semisquare the Sun on one side and the Moon on the other. I would look for a similar reaction in the shares of DS.
Weyerhauser (WY-Dec.6-1963) will have Uranus on Saturn and square the MC. In addition, the Jupiter-Pluto aspect will hit the natal Sun square Pluto and Uranus. This forest products company has not had a sustained run of outperformance in years. These aspects will likely send the stock gyrating. But let's remember that Pluto in combination with these planets has turned up during buyout bids before.
Kaufman & Broad (KMB-5/29/69) will have the Jupiter-Pluto opposition on its Sun-Mercury conjunction opposite Mars. This well-known home builder has likely been depressed by high interest rates. The stock may be so cheap that it also attracts buyout interest. We look to the horoscopes of incorporation for KMB. The company was first established in Delaware on August 31, 1981, and underwent a name change on May 31, 1986. The Sun in the first chart is at 8° Virgo, while the Sun in the second is at 10° Gemini. So we see that the charts of incorporation also get aspected by the Jupiter-Pluto opposition; so there is some support from the incorporation charts for an acquisition. |
