Okay, I finally have some time for this, so let's get started on this and see how far we get.
Conseco/Wendt have clearly stated how they will pay their debts:
Really now? Then why don't you give us that clear statement, instead of
-“ There will not be a firesale of assets”
-“We will not sell CNCFinance now at fire sale prices. Maybe later in the normal course of Business"
which are statement of what he will NOT do, and
-" The company intends to manage debt payments due from 2000 through 2002 while minimizing any change in our strategic position and/or any loss to future income-generating potential. "
Which still leaves one to say: "Okay, but HOW?"
” The revision in the CreditWatch status reflects the increasing likelihood that Conseco Finance will not be sold to a higher-rated entity in the foreseeable future.
So, what we have is a delayed reaction by MOODY’s
and S & P's because CNC will not raise cash in a fire sale.
So basically you're saying that Moody's should stop holding out hope for a CF sale and rate CNC's bonds based on the assumption that it ain't gonna happen. What's that they say about being careful what you wish for?
It is hard for them to see how Gary Wendt will pay
the debt so it is their fiduciary responsibility to put
CNC on CreditWatch.
But didn't you just say Wendt "clearly stated how he will pay their debts"?
However both stated that ” They expect the company and its bank lenders to reach a satisfactory agreement “
No doubt. Satisfactory to the banks, satisfactory to the company. But they didn't say anything about it being satisfactory to the shareholders.
Now what MOODY’s and S & P’s need to do is take a deep breath, sit back and relax and watch Gary Wendt do his “ Magic “,to see how he does it.
Magic? Was "magic" part of Wendt's "clear statement"? Or is this your way of saying you really don't understand what's about to go down here.
Magic as in “ Magic Johnson “ .
Go Green. Speaking of sports stars, did you know that an easy way to upset Jose Canseco is to accidentally call him "Jose Conseco"?
Today CNC closed down 1/16 on low volume indicative That longs are willing to hold their shares
and give Gary a chance.
There is a point to be taken there, that few prospective longs that were undeterred by a Ba3 rating had their minds changed by the subsequent downgrade to B1.
Think of this series of downgrades as a countdown to zero, like on New Year's Eve. Is the countdown supposed to become any less enthusiastic as it goes along just because no one is going to be surprised that "4" is followed by "3"?
To the shorts, the downgrade just means we're one step closer to payday. A reaction in the stock price would have been a nice bonus, but it is not a necessity. Moody's will do what they have to do on their own schedule, and the stock price will take care of itself.
They know that a time bomb is ticking.
True enough. A B-1 bomb, if you will. The question is, am I sitting on it, or are you?
Aug 9 (Reuters) - Conseco Finance, fixed final terms for its 2000-4 series $1.2 billion nine-tranche asset-backed bond launched on August 4. Rating Aaa/AAA/AAA
I'll confess to being a bit lost in the complexities of the terminology, but isn't this basically the equivalent of a secured credit line, like you see advertised to people with bad credit? I mean, obviously CNC has some very high quality assets to put up, but that doesn't modify the implication that CNC can't raise money simply on its promise to repay.
That's enough for now. Most of the rest of the stuff is old and been rehashed ad nauseum anyway. |
