Mani-- Frankly, I don't know why people thought/think the AMAT results can change the market sentiment. If the number is great, is means there is overordering and overmanufacturing and the semiconductor boom is ending soon. If there is underordering, it means that the boom just ended.
The results can be spun negatively, either way. Not all that different from the economic data, actually. Too good, uh oh, AG is tightening. Too weak, uh oh, recession. Ideally, people see happy moderation and rally things, but I wouldn't count on that.
Anyway, about AMD-- no analyst has in the last month or two actually said AMD will outperform the SOX in terms of earnings growth. Niles, just a few months ago, straight out said AMD will grow at the rate of the semiconductor industry. The other guys are either Pecking a looming price war, or just saying AMD is undervalued, but saying AMD will not take significant market share from Intel. LaFountain was the most bullish guy in terms of earnings and market share projections (not in terms of stock price, but this is reasonable based on his value bent), but he's gone now.
Anything AMD says tomorrow that can make at least one analyst think AMD can get to 30% by beginning of 2002, would do a world of good for the stock. A media event open only to media and financial analysts; however, is not exactly a standard venue for revealing the details of a new processor or instruction set.
-Eric |
