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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies

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To: John Trudeau who wrote (7459)	8/10/2000 1:43:33 AM
From: Richard Saunders	Read Replies (1) of 24939

JT - GOU Gulf production profile & debt. BEC Belair at bottom. Yes, you're right about LT debt. As of June30 it was still just under $2.1 bil. Company still feels it's on track to exit year at $1.5 bil as proceeds from Petrovera sale are applied. Hopefully conference call will discuss LT debt issues. Earlier in 2Q Standard & Poors upgraded debt rating to BBB-. More recently DBRS upgraded debt rating to investment grade BBB (low). Still a ways to go however some progress has been made. Production profile. Sorta' depends on how you do the math. 2Q production is shown by GOU at net 132,500 boepd. Production comes from North America as well as some international places - currently Indonesia and Netherlands. Gas from the int'l. parts is converted at 6:1 while North American is done at 10:1 conversion. IF int'l. is converted at 10:1 then 2Q net production would be 119,800 boepd. Here's production profile using the 119,800 number: North America - conventional light crude:... 15.5% - conventional heavy:......... 13% - Syncrude:................... 15% - other NGL.:................. 5% Int'l. Oil & NGL - Indonesia :............. 12% - Netherlands:............ 2.5% North America Natural Gas:.................. 21% Indonesia Natural Gas (10:1):............... 13% Netherlands Natural gas:.................... 3% Your question - "Where do you see them going?" Personal tho't(s) - probably one of three different doors. Door #1 - someone BIG (u.s. dollars?) takes them out. Door #2 - long term corporate growth. Door #3 - debt snaps back and a choker hold results which would eventually result in Door #1. Hopefully the conference call will discuss plans behind Door #2 which would appear to include Eastern Cda. offshore (Mobil finances exploration), Northern Canada (Parson's Lake in Mackenzie Delta), Surmont and Kerrobert steam assisted gravity drainage project, Algeria, Netherlands and Indonesia. All long term......... John, re: BEC Belair. What are you basing expectations on re: your hopeful $5 number? Multiples, production, etc.?....

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