Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 228.68

+1.2%

Nov 17 3:59 PM EST

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To: pat mudge who wrote (36574)	8/10/2000 4:22:26 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (6) of 70976

Pat, I have enjoyed your posts on the COM21 (CMTO) thread and I would like to repay your efforts by commenting on AMAT and the semi-equips. I do not agree with the general concensus that this is a valuable thread. Certainly, the posters are intelligent and courteous and, definitely, a great deal of relevant news is posted. Unfortunately, it is excessively positive and hasn't come to grips with the current situation. We have just seen almost all analysts reiterate buys and strong buys and set targets in the $120 to $140 range. Why is the stock down? Why is the industry down much more? The answer is that faint roaring sign down river from us. We don't know how far off it is, but it is the waterfall. A recent post quoted two money managers who said the time to buy AMAT is over for this up cycle. You bought at $72, but 4 years ago it was $5.50. At that time it was the acknowledged industry leader with 25% of the market and share growing. How far and how long do you expect the price to increase before it falls to $25? If you are an expert short term trader, go for it. If you are like many of us, intermediate and long term investors, don't be fooled by yesterday's report or Morgan's comments. (Hill and Bagley have been far better prognosticators.) A purchase today implies that you feel confident with your estimates of the quarterly report 1 and 2 years from now. Not much discussion of 1 and 2 years out here. No comments on Brian's post which stated capacity is at $14-15B. No discussion about how long it will take or difficult it will be to increase capacity. No discussion about how the PE will move as the up cycle end comes closer. Much discussion about how the cycle will not end. I hope this warning helps you. Cary

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