Hi John:
Here is a table showing the gains and losses in the S&P
& NAZ since 1972. It also illustrates the return on $100
invested as of January 1, 1972 by year. Notice if one was
invested in the S&P one did not start making a return until
1982 while the NAZ was in 1979. I'm posting this for a
few reasons.
1) To point out the buy and hold strategy can be very
dangerous unless one has a long time horizon.
2) To illustrate the 1973 & 1974 period which was the 1st
oil crisis in recent memory (my memory of course) where the
inflation filtering thru the economy wrecked havoc with
the stock markets. My limited (very) experience from
memory was the oil & oil field service companies did very
well during this period. This can be wrong but I remember
AET's investment in Geosource (an oil field service
company, headquartered in Houston at the Galleria complex) did very well in the 1972 to 1982 period.
Investment Analysis
Return on Return on
$100 $100
Invested in Invested in
Year S&P Nasdaq S&P S&P
500 500 500
1 1972 15.6% 17.2% 116 117
2 1973 -17.4% -31.1% 95 81
3 1974 -29.7% -35.1% 67 52
4 1975 28.1% 29.8% 86 68
5 1976 19.2% 26.1% 102 86
6 1977 -11.2% 7.3% 91 92
7 1978 1.1% 12.3% 92 103
8 1979 12.3% 25.1% 103 129
9 1980 25.8% 33.9% 130 173
10 1981 -9.7% -3.1% 117 168
11 1982 14.8% 18.7% 135 199
12 1983 17.3% 19.9% 158 239
13 1984 1.4% 11.2% 160 265
14 1985 26.3% 31.4% 202 349
15 1986 14.6% 7.4% 232 374
16 1987 2.0% -5.3% 237 355
17 1988 12.4% 15.4% 266 409
18 1989 27.3% 19.3% 338 488
19 1990 -6.6% -17.8% 316 401
20 1991 26.3% 56.8% 399 629
21 1992 4.5% 18.5% 417 745
22 1993 7.1% 14.8% 447 855
23 1994 -1.5% -3.2% 440 828
24 1995 34.1% 39.9% 590 1,159
25 1996 20.3% 22.7% 709 1,422
26 1997 31.1% 21.6% 930 1,729
27 1998 26.7% 39.6% 1,178 2,414
28 1999 19.1% 84.1% 1,402 4,445
29 06/00 -2.5% -1.0% 1,367 4,401
308.57% 476.30% 10,922 22,777 |
