"screaming sell on all charts."
This may reflect more on your analysis -- or your view of technical analysis of charts -- rather than technical analysis. A stock isn't a screaming sell just because it's moving down or is reaching new lows. When you saw opportunities using FA, a lot of people saw the same opportunities using TA.
If you bought AMD around 10 in the summer of '96, you bought when it wasn't a screaming sell by any means. Nor was it a screaming sell in August of '98, at around 14, nor in Oct. of '99 at around 17.
The same goes for screaming buys. What you imagine to be a screaming buy to a technical analyst, is probably a screaming sell to most good analysts. Just because a stock is shooting up, making new highs, doesn't make it a screaming buy. It's just as likely to be a screaming sell. Heck, look at AMD at 97 in June. Was that a screaming buy? Don't think so. In fact, the signals were saying the opposite.
And if and when AMD fills that gap from March, Monty probably won't say, "See it filled the gap. The stock is dead. Sell." He'll probably be buying, after waiting for a good opportunity to buy low.
But that's enuf outa me. Monty's casting some pearls of wisdom, as the expression goes, about the 200 SMA and AMD, and about gaps, and yet it leads to a fruitless debate about TA. I think he just wants people to proceed with some caution, and not fall too much in love with one stock for too long. I think he's said AMD is a good company with good fundies. But that doesn't mean it can't do what all other stocks do: go up and go down. |
