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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 129.98

-6.2%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: JCS who wrote (159422)	8/10/2000 8:32:36 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (2) of 176387

JCS - I don't think the numbers look good. My position was that light revenue would have been OK if earnings were there, driven by a big growth in server sales. I expected that to happen, that's why I bought Sept and Nov calls. I suspect I will eat the Sept calls, we'll see about November. MSD said CPQ was in the rearview mirror and his target was SUN. Well, Sun shipped nearly as many servers as DELL, and at nearly 3 times the average selling price... and CPQ showed 40% growth in servers. I have not seen DELL break out server revenue but the language they are using suggests that they were not sufficiently strong to be touted, instead we have the same strange definition of "enterprise sales" which includes laptops and workstations, something no one else in the industry does, and something none of the measuring outfits use. There was a very weak statement that "Worldwide shipments of Dell PowerEdge servers increased at nearly double the industry rate" which would put them at maybe 35% growth. Then they say "Revenue from high-density rack-mounted servers grew more than 300 percent during the quarter, and represented 33 percent of total server sales" - that must mean that the non-rack stuff actually declined. It is not hard to do (3 * .33) + (X * .67) = .35 and see what X turns out to be. I am also a little disturbed by the headline on the DELL website claiming $7.7B in revenue when a paragraph below the number is $7.67... I thought close only counted in horseshoes. What's the point? I also doubt that the earnings estimates from the analysts included .05 from investments - which is what I figure from $125M. None of the boxmakers are getting any credit for investment income, and even Intel did not claim theirs as a part of their headline EPS. The mixture of income from financial with what is probably pure investment gain also seems like a smokescreen. All in all, I am not too sure I believe the "on target for 30% growth" unless they plan on selling their portfolio and counting all of that in the mix. Sure does not look like the base business is getting there.

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