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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 239.52-1.8%11:04 AM EST
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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (4382)8/10/2000 8:42:37 PM
From: PetzRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
Jim, I find the best TA indicators are sentiment indicators like put/call ratios, % cash in mutual funds, etc. Have you ever read a book called "Stock Market Logic" by Norm Fosback? It had loads of sentiment indicators and their predictive influence on the market for 3 months, 6 months, a year, etc. Unfortunately, the data in version I have is based on data through 1973, maybe its been updated.

The overall put/call ratio on AMD today was 0.88. For August puts and calls (the most speculative) the ratio was 1.24. When AMD was in the 80's and 90's those numbers were 0.25 to 0.33. I think the numbers are indicative of extreme pessimism which means there's no one left to sell.

How many people are speculating on August calls now? nobody. How many loaded up on July calls before earnings? 2/3 of us
When was the best time to sell? before earnings
When is the best time to buy?

no one knows if sentiment can get even more negative than now, but the best indicator of all is the depressed mood here. It wasn't this bad in January of 99.

FWIW, the max-pain for August is now 70, so the option writers may put mild positive pressure on the stock next week for a change.

Petz
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