Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 224.33

+1.8%

11:47 AM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (36603)	8/10/2000 9:21:06 PM
From: Joseph Beltran	Read Replies (1) of 70976

If investors -especially institutional ones- have bought the argument that the cycle end is near, it seems to follow that the entire sector will be deemed "dead money" for a long time to come, regardless of how excellent or optimistic future earnings reports and forecasts from ceos' are. 3 months from now AMAT will report great earnings and a great forecast and analysts will respond: "So what, now we are 3 months closer to the end of the cycle". The following quarter analysts will say the same thing until we eventually reach a quarter (perhaps 2 years from now) when earnings and forecasts are not as "rosy" and then analysts will add: "We told you the cycle was going to end". As far as I can tell, in the present environment, there is little that the industry as a whole can do to plausibly "prove" that the cycle is indeed not over by a long shot. It's the proverbial situation where you are confronted with disproving a negative. All the bears have to do is to periodically reiterate their claim and the best we can hope for is for the sector to thread water for a prolonged period of time. Of course, without this sector to invest in, I guess people can put their money into such growth engines as coca cola, mc donalds, and clorox.

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