DO,
you are right on about the volatility of LPTH. On the other hand, one thing that I have learned from Rande is that if a stock becomes out of favor, the disciplined trader will cut losses until it is proven that the company is back in favor.
Do I feel lpth is out of favor right now with the public? I will be able to answer that better tomorrow. If LPTH is weak tomorrow, then I will probably exit completely and wait for turn around or something positive. Until then it will drift with the NAZ.
What has changed about LPTH - IMO, the time frame has changed on LPTH's future stock price explosion. (I say this honestly - I still feel LPTH has the right ingredients for an extreme growth situation.)
One of the issues that has been brought up on the Yahoo LPTH board (a very good board actually) is the backorder number. When comparing this number to the information published during the last quarterly statement with the past and current revenue - then throwing Horizon into the equation - you have the situation where it seems there should have either been higher revenues or higher backorders. We will have to wait for the SEC report for more details. (Sorry, I do not have time to run through the numbers - good explanations on yahoo though.)
So, bottom line is that LPTH could still knock our socks off with an awesome announcement, but IMO the potential for a 30% drop from here is pretty high. I do not like to lose 30% of my money in a week or two! (And, IMO the upside after an announcement will be 10%-15% on the first day - unless buyout.) So, hold for two weeks to potentially lose 1/3 of your money or make 15% of your money. I know, I know - not exactly how it works, but this is basically how I perform my risk analysis.
Disclosure: I lightened my load today by about 1/2 on LPTH and will drop rest on further weakness.
TA??? Mark or anyone, I would be interested in hearing TA on LPTH current situation. Thanks!
One more thing - I really do think LPTH has those ingredients, but I am beginning to think that they need to be stirred/mixed just a little bit longer.
paullie |
