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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 235.24

+4.5%

Nov 19 3:59 PM EST

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To: Math Junkie who wrote (36608)	8/10/2000 10:00:39 PM
From: mitch-c	Read Replies (1) of 70976

AMAT is a great company, and the gorilla of its industry, but it is not immune to economic cycles. Given recent price action, I think the more relevant cycle is the political one. An ad-hoc market correlation with presidential polls seems close. Bush picks Cheney and has a convention -- his numbers go up slightly, and so do the markets. Gore picks Lieberman, with a convention next week -- he gains back even, and the markets stay bellyflopped, even with good news. It's axiomatic that Wall Street hates uncertainty, and it seems clear that the aggregate investment community prefers Bush. (That's NOT necessarily anyone's personal preferences, so let's not start THAT flamewar! This is only an observation.) Four-year election cycles may be a bit too long for folks to think back on -- but assuming that Mr. Market gets what he seems to want in November, I'm guessing that AMAT gets an extra kick in the seat, with little significant motion until then. - Mitch

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