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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 220.28

-6.4%

Nov 20 3:59 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (36603)	8/10/2000 10:02:21 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (3) of 70976

Cary, Past cycle Peak P/Es were achieved when the market P/E ranged from about 6 to 15; inflation rates were generally much higher; and the fed was less friendly. Is it reasonable to stick with a 20 P/E when the market P/E is closer to 30 than 13? Also on a $11B Revenue run rate, AMAT's run rate for E is $2.80. Morgan expects to better a $20B company before this cycle is done. Wouldn't you expect higher margins? and a Peak E above $6? Or do you doubt the $20B Peak revenue? i.e. AMAT would have to capture 25% of global chip equipment revenues if 25% of a $325B global billing for chips. Somehow, I don't think we've come anywhere close to this cycle's peak prices. Just a few thoughts, Ian.

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