Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 227.28

+3.2%

2:27 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (36604)	8/10/2000 11:09:56 PM
From: J Bertrand	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Cary, You have stimulated a good debate on this thread. I submit to you that the AMAT thread is very valuable to intelligent investors because it really does make one think. Whether you hear the "rosy" or the "dark" arguments, they are food for thought. I personally have "saved" huge amounts of money at times based on arguments that convinced me to go one way or another. Regarding AMAT's long term. While I agree that the "cycle" is still ruling the market, if you put your money into AMAT over the next 5 years, I can't see how you would at least have a 3x-5x bagger. Somewhere in those years is going to be a peak. Somewhere you might lose 50% value in AMAT, but trying to figure out when the peak is is really a like trying to time the market. It is proven that it can't be done with any accuracy. Furthermore, if a peak occurs sooner, then the start of the next uptrend will begin sooner to. If AMAT is peaking in 2 years, then five years from now, the next uptrend will be firmly in place where the "easy" money can be made. This is what "investing" versus "gambling" is all about. Finally, darting in and out of these stocks trying to time the peaks and valleys is extremely expensive especially if you are paying 46% (federal and state) on the trades. It's almost cheaper to lose 30% to 50% in paper loses than to try and dart in and out at 46%. So, with that in mind, I say to all AMAT investors. Buy now at a reasonable price with a 5 year target return that will more than destroy any mutual fund or "day trading" strategy. Nobody can deny that AMAT is one of the key cornerstones of the information revolution. A revolution that is clearly in its infancy. I firmly believe that an investor who stays in AMAT for 5 years will kill the return of an investor who is darting in and out at 46% tax rates. See you in 5 years at $350 (not split adjusted) Regards Jeff Bertrand

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