Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 225.18

-1.5%

Nov 18 3:59 PM EST

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To: dr_elis who wrote (36626)	8/11/2000 8:15:15 AM
From: w0z	Read Replies (4) of 70976

Interesting discussion about the semi- equipment cycle! Has technology reached the point where it is generating its own momentum by shortening life cycles and lowering costs in every aspect of our lives? For example cell phones are obsolete in 2 years and old market models based on percent penetration no longer apply. Markets are completely turning themselves over in very short cycles in many areas...not to mention the new applications that are announced daily. The real question in my mind is whether the rate of semiconductor capacity expansion is more or less than the rate of expansion of all the markets being created and revolutionized by technology. Semiconductor capacity may be filling the glass very quickly but application expansion, lower costs and ever shorter cycle times continue to make large holes in the bottom of the glass. It seems to me that we may have reached an inflection point in the use of technology where it is generating its own momentum and I doubt that anyone has the ability to forecast exactly what will happen. These are certainly interesting times to live and invest!

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