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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: UnBelievable who wrote (10348)8/11/2000 8:48:40 AM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
Even though I have learned to not expect the big one and have stopped throwing as much money at puts, I can see a nasty scenario in the works that makes me think I should have more short exposure than I do.

One thing that people do not discuss widely is the technical implications of a trading range after an extended move up. They concentrate on previous lows as the most important test, but they are missing the point:

As the chart move sideways the myriad lines of rising support get closer and closer to price.

If we were to test the May lows again, the technical damage would be much worse than when we were last there. It may signal a great buying opty, but it also may signal an ugly slide.

Next critical short-term test for the composite:
If it gives up 3600 with vigor, then it will invalidate any hope of us being in a triangular formation or a rising channel. it will have us looking at the very large (1500 pts) flag we have been making. The falling bottom of this flag is currently ~2700.

Fundamentals and sentiment could be pointing to a nasty slide here:

*BOJ decision
*Struggling dollar breakout. Will it weaken now?
*Oil is popping again. Will mid-east/Irag push this?
Will this fuel renewed fears of inflation.
*Labor market still points to inflation.
*Sentiment is still overall much too bullish
*Investor sentiment re: P/E's/earnings is changing.
*Commercial short position staggering.

People are focussuing on FOMC this month. I do not think that's the battle. Even if there is a relief rally when he does not raise, it will not be enough to sustain said rally.
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