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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 322.32

-5.6%

Jan 30 9:30 AM EST

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From: hhieslmair	8/11/2000 11:46:25 AM
	Read Replies (3) of 70976

How about some numbers. Forget $ amounts, lets get to the bottom and talk about 200mm wafer equiv. I picked this data from a few graphs and tables, but ultimately I think the data comes from only one or two sources ie IC Insights etc. Clearly the future values are estimated. If someone else has other numbers please post them. Yr Incr percent tot waf 91 18.3 92 1.1 6.0% 19.4 93 2.9 15.0% 22.3 94 3.5 16.0% 25.9 95 5.3 21.0% 31.3 96 5.9 19.0% 37.3 97 4.1 11.0% 41.4 98 2.8 7.0% 44.3 99 0.8 2.0% 45.1 00 4.8 11.0% 50.1 01 6.9 13.8% 57.0 At its worst, capacity was increasing in 95 and 96 by 21% and 19%. Even with all the spending, it appears that the 2000 capacity increase will only be 11%. So if we are at capacity today (suppy=demand), one has to ask - how fast is demand for chips rising, and will capacity overshoot or undershoot? IMHO chip demand growth larger than 14% (PC approx 7%, but other sectors are larger) and new capacity will take longer to come online. HH

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