HH, >Forget $ amounts, lets get to the bottom and talk about 200mm wafer equiv. I picked this data from a few graphs and tables, but ultimately I think the data comes from only one or two sources ie IC Insights etc. Clearly the future values are estimated. If someone else has other numbers please post them.
At its worst, capacity was increasing in 95 and 96 by 21% and 19%. Even with all the spending, it appears that the 2000 capacity increase will only be 11%. So if we are at capacity today (suppy=demand), one has to ask - how fast is demand for chips rising, and will capacity overshoot or undershoot?
Don't we have to look at the number of chips that have been made out of those 200 mm wafers? Since 1995 or so, we have traversed .8, .65, .5, .35, .25, .18 and now are coming up on 0.13 micron technologies. There are, therefore, many times more chips being made today per wafer, and overall, than there were in 1995.
Tony |
