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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts
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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (48475)8/11/2000 1:29:42 PM
From: Original Mad Dog  Read Replies (1) of 63513
 
I would think that you would see weakness in the semi equipment makers before the actual semi cycle topped out.

I'm not sure I understand your statement here. If you are saying that we would see weakness in the semi equipment stocks before the actual cycle tops out, I agree, that has happened in the past and should be expected. What has happened, at least to the two semi equipment stocks that I follow, is that the stocks have already been hammered (LRCX from 56 to 21; AMAT from 115 to 68) even though the actual current financial performance has been ok. Take a look at the LRCX chart in particular; I have been poised to reenter on sign of a reversal in sentiment, but those signs just don't seem ready to appear.

So shouldn't we be interpreting the behavior of these semi equipment stocks as meaning the cycle has (or is about to) peak??? Or should we wait until the semi equipment makers actually stop selling product???
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