Conseco Insurance (CNO) Message Board

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Non-Tech : Conseco Insurance (CNO)

CNO 39.59

-1.0%

Nov 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (2327)	8/11/2000 8:45:55 PM
From: Kevin Podsiadlik	Read Replies (1) of 4155

One thing you need to understand about Gary Smith's trading through charting methodology. Right up front, he goes in knowing that 30-40% of his trades are going to be losers. Read that as: even knowing NOTHING about the issues surrounding CNC, there is a priori a chance of 30-40% that CNC will breach the 50-day MDA and stop out anyone who makes that trade. Gary makes money by batting better than .500 on his calls, and not getting hurt worse by his losing trades than he profits from his winners. My point to you is that Gary's calls can be very wrong at times, and that is something you have to know going in. Here's a rather spectacular example, from November 5 of last year, in a stock I happened be short at the time: thestreet.com "But God Almighty, have you seen what's happened since?" photos.yahoo.com I'm outta here, see ya in a week!

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