Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 218.79

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10:23 AM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (36611)	8/11/2000 9:21:50 PM
From: Demosthenes	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Ian, hheislmier posted the following post explaining his opinion as to why semi equip cycles would become less violent. (I printed it and have read it everyday since it was posted). Message 14129265 Katherine chimed in lately and took that post apart piece by piece. She seems to think the cycles will continue to be dramatic because of greed and the quest for market share haven't changed. She pointed out some serious flaws in the "300mm-automation-fab-flexibility-argument." Captain Morgan sees "a decade of opportunity ahead," whatever that means. I seem to recall you saying some time ago that you intend to be get out of your equip positions while they are making new highs during this extended up cycle, i.e., that you have no intention to hold through the next down cycle if it can be avoided. 1)Do you still intend to do so? 2)Do you think the cycle will moderate? (I think you have said so recently.) And if so, can you balance your argument effectively against the historical precedent of greed/mkt/share over-spending that usually takes us over the cliff. I always appreciate your thoughts. D

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