Thanks for the article, Scott. With regards to your questions and comments,
>> Most of my relatives are patient CSCO investors like you are. Yet, I feel the next year may provide some great challenges for the most highly valued tech company.
I've been in Cisco since 1997, and every year presents great challenges for them. In fact, Chambers constantly reminds his troops that they are 18 months away from disaster if they don't execute in the fast moving networking universe.
>> CSCO is extremely well managed but unfortunately it does not offer the UPside that I am looking for in the next few years of investing.
While it doesn't have the upside of a ntap or sebl, it has a record for predictability of earnings and <astonishing> top line growth which makes it one of the most stable high tech plays. This has allowed me to feel comfortable investing in them solely through leaps, while I hold both leaps and common, or just common, on my other positions. My last purchase was wivar's on 1/4/00, which became wivai's when csco split. Despite a lackluster year, I've realized a 65.4% return ytd. If I'd put my entire portfolio in csco back then, I'd be penning you this note from my second home in Maui <gg>.
>> Of course CSCO is also priced for perfection...
I don't think that is the case. I believe concerns about optical networking and high failure rates for dot.com companies are played into their current valuation.
>> and if for some reason it does not continue to exceed the streets' expectations then it will not be very pleasant for shareholders.
Certainly would, and that's why we gorilla gamers must be constantly on the alert for a proven threat of substitution. But as was pointed out in the article,
Optical networking, after all, is Cisco's future, according to Chambers
the finest management team in high tech is focused on optical networking, and
Cisco's near-overnight construction of such a huge division (which accounted for $1 billion in sales in the fourth quarter) can be seen as yet another miracle engineered by Chambers.
their results have been outstanding! Cisco is a huge battleship but they are turning it towards optical at the rate you'd expect from a speed boat.
I don't have my cisco shares tucked under my mattress, Scott; I'm watching them very carefully. But so far, so good.
uf |
