NASD has no room for error; Looking at the recent action in the NASD and the DOW it look like perhaps we are getting set up for a drop to the 3150 range. Reasons for this is Bio- Techs are selling off, they actually started the rally from the 3150 range. researching the Bio-techs you would have noticed they started to rally 2-3 weeks before the NASD bounced. Looking lately at the GENO stocks its a sad story. Those buyers who are buying Bio-Techs on these down days for a bounce are just not getting what they were doing 4-7 weeks ago. CRA, HGSI,PDLI, MLNM are my examples.
Secondly the IPO market has fallen off a cliff for about 80% of the recent IPO's over the last 4 weeks. Of course their are exceptions.
Thirdly Chip stocks are still selling off even after AMAT's earnings rumour has it that Book-bill will tell the story cycle is OVER PRODUCING?
Fourth Oil is above 31bbl again!!
In conclusion I see no reason to hold ANY STOCKS long in this enviroment. I have been trading for 14 Years and the last 4 months have been incredibly difficult to make money either LONG or SHORT! I believe the markets are telling us something here but I donot know what they are foreseeing. I am afraid the current model long is 75%-25%, thats 75% risk to the down side, and 25% to the upside. I donot see the bottom fishing that has been in this bull market since 1992. When you bottom fish you get crushed in todays market.
As a trader I am mostly cash and the rest is short OIL. I find even when shorting lately with the tech stocks the MM are not rolling over on the price, but they also are not taking the stock higher?? I would like to dip into the BIO's and some tech as well as net stocks for the fall but the atmosphere is not the way it was over the last 3 years. Even in the Bear of 98, from August-October if you picked up at the bottom you were rewarded, but not in 00.
I would appreciate any comments as to what we as traders are looking at for the next 6 months, I really for the first time am losing my ambition and fortitude for the current conditions. I am not down for the year, actually I am haing the best year I have ever had in the market, but at the what cost??? |
