Hi Don, I think that the next two weeks are going to be "interesting for the bu$$, we are getting close to the IDF meeting (possibly too late for some threadsters with 100 Aug. call), and with all the back and forth that INTC is doing re DRAM vs other memory for the P4, it may be, unlike the last IDF problematic. I think, however, that we will see from the stock behavior what the IDF will bring, if we breach the $75/$77 area, it would means that INTC will probably reiterate its support, a break of $62 might set the stage for a deep retrenchment, possibly to the $45 area. Right now, I am encouraged that the $82 area held, and am assuming that the $77 area will be taken out, but since this expiry week, there might be some pressure on the price very short term. If despite this pressure, $62 holds, by gosh, this one is getting "coiled" again (Earlie, if you are reading this, it may be time to cover those shorts <g>).
As for VSH, I am shying away, for the time being, few weeks back the top guy made noise about the stock being unjustly beaten, then on Friday, they decided to to a buy back. I like buy backs as an instrument to pay tax free dividends, I do not trust these when they are made to support the stock. If the stock was selling at book or below, then it makes sense, but with the stock at about 4 times book, spending $150 MM (they have only $125 MM cash on hand) and doing it with debt, is not a good idea, IMHO. They also have some major plans of spending $500 MM on a joint venture in Jordan (if memory serves), and IMHO, now is not the time to squander resources on buying back their own shares. The stock may rally to around $35, but I do not see it going much higher than that near term.
Zeev |
