Hi Doug. Been hoping someone would step up to the plate and give us a good picture of the Denver Confag. But the big picture perspective you worked in was a bonus. Thank you. A quality post.
You're reopening doors to a lot of areas visited on and off here + other threads during the past 15 months. But might be worth a shot at adding a little at the margins. So here goes.
"And if you look at the fuel progression for the last 200 years of industrial revolution advanced industrial societies have been moving from fuels that put off much carbon-based pollution with low BTU value (i.e. wood) towards fuels with high BTU contents but that put off low carbon-base dpollution (first NG and later hydrogen over the next 25 years)."
Well geez, there's big picture stuff and then there's BIG PICTURE stuff<g>. You sum above is a nice compact ex of the later. And you are right on, IMHO.
OT, (cause don't think he even mentions the oil indus) but probably the best REALLY big picture thing I've ever read was The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, by Princeton Univ historian of science, Thomas Kuhn (when I was an undergrad at Rutgers in the late 60s). Whoa! Hot stuff. I understood only bits and pieces, but even that was well worth the read!
Anyway, if memory serves (please allow lots of latitude for factual errors here - read him a LONG time ago<g>) Kuhn was one of the dudes that first woke me up to the importance of top down rather than bottom up thinking. Not enough top down perspective vs bottom up work is IMO one of the the traps that a great many W.S. analysts and investors fall into. Maybe what suprises me most is that even my my often incomplete grasp of the O&G big picture has helped my avoid some very big losses in my investment work.
As some here have already noticed<g> I don't sweat as many of the details as other investors. It's really part of my way of doing the top down style. AKA, "iso loose cannon investing", LOL. Have found if I can hit the barn big picturewise and do likewise navigating around intermediate highs and lows, there are huge %age gains to be made in the patch.
All that, notwithstanding, it's worth giving a lot of emphasis to what my ole P.E. investment mentor often told me in the mid-80s. "I'm making mistakes every day"! And even though he was being completely honest, saw that old coot take put $500k into RD and run it fully margined to 1.5 mil in ONE YEAR.
That willingness to not only admit but not get bent outta shape about the mistakes we all make was one of the best survival skills old Mike taught me about investing... That's one of the reasons Bullski is such an asset on this thread. Like ole Mike, he's saavy, but possessed of a million $ sense of humor which keeps him from taking this crazy game TOO seriously.
Lord, am rambling. But what the heck. It's the weekend<g>.
Doug, the next area you hit which is VERY important and still not understood on W.S. IMO is the reason for the staggering %age gains we are only STARTING to see in the best of the sm NG E&P players: The revolutionary advances in geophysics that can almost exponentially increase both quality of prospect inventories and the success ratio on big exploratory wells. For investors the trick is to identify which companies have in house & consulting earth scientists that are "top of the class". Like the real super-stars in any game they ain't grow'in on trees<g>.
Anyway thanks again for your post Doug. During the 15 months I've been reading this thread have found your input here to be among the best. To be honest hope you post more often.
Best
Isopatch |
