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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (8232)	8/13/2000 5:19:50 PM
From: Snowshoe	of 10309

Ramsey, lately I've been reviewing the embedded story in terms of the Gorilla Game by Geoffrey Moore. In Chapter 7 (revised edition), he lays down the following timing rules: Rule 1: If the category is application software, buy in the bowling alley. Rule 2. If the category is enabling hardware or software, buy at the start of the tornado. WIND sells enabling software and I think we can both agree that it is still in the "bowling alley" (niche market) stage. So according to strict GG theory, one would not have been in WIND during the past four years. OTOH, with the speed of today's market, one could easily be on vacation and miss the discovery of a new gorilla. So some people who understand the GG will try to scope out potential gorillas in advance. The question is, does the embedded market really have the potential to become a mass market that can support a true gorilla, as Allen Benn advocates? Or is the embedded market going to stabilize in what Moore (Chapter 2) calls a "bowling alley forever" state, which just continues along as a series of niches? I don't know the answer, but it seems to me that this is the key issue with WIND that gets to the heart of your questions.

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