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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 214.18-0.5%Dec 31 3:59 PM EST
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To: kash johal who wrote (4858)8/13/2000 6:36:35 PM
From: andreas_wonischRead Replies (2) of 275872
 
Kash, Re: Tualatin with sub celeron die size, 512K on chip cache and 200Mhz fsb will be a kick ass low end processor. And they should be able to yield plenty at 1Gh-1.5Ghz.

I doubt that the P6 core will go ever so high. Even with the latest stepping (a 20% core shrink!) the P3 barely reaches 1 GHz. At 1.13 GHz it needs extra cooling and a microprocessor update otherwise it runs extremely unreliable (see Tom, HardOCP and c't). I don't see why another core shrink (.13 micron) with increased L2 cache(!) would improve binsplits significantly. IMO the P6 core has reached its limits at the 800-1000 MHz range. If P4 doesn't achieve killer performance Intel has created a huge opportunity for AMD. And keep in mind that Intel won't have much .13 micron copper capacity in 2001. There ramp-up has just begun and they have no experience in copper technology. I don't see how they could catch up before 2002 at the earliest.

IMO it's much more likely that Intel will increase the Celeron FSB to 100 MHz in 2001 (=low end) and sell the P3 with 200 MHz FSB in the mainstream, mid-range market. I think they will drop Timna completely. So AMD will be extremely competitive in all market segments except perhaps the high end where P4 could outperform Mustang on highly optimized applications.

Andreas
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