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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 255.96+2.3%Nov 5 3:59 PM EST
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To: kash johal who wrote (4956)8/14/2000 2:49:01 PM
From: EricRRRead Replies (4) of 275872
 
AMD market segmentation:

I was happy to see the "hole" in the processor spread at 750MHz. Obviously, all Thunderbirds binsplit at 800MHz and above, else AMD would keep this Athlon speed grade for sale. I was also happy to see that the Duron 750 is a no-show for now, since this part would just sap Athlon sales.

Once Duron volumes get going, I don't know how Intel's Celeron can possibly compete. They will be forced to go to 100MHz FSB, or else risk Celeron generating "K6" style ASP's, with Duron taking the higher spots.

This battle is the biggest wild card I see right now. If Intel shifts up Celeron to 100MHz FSB, it poses a huge cannibalization risk. If they don't, AMD has an invitation to the business market.

Intel won't be safe until the 0.13u coppermines with 200MHz FSB come out in the 3rd quarter of 2001. Then then can raise the celeron bar, and fill in the 1.1 - 1.3GHz product hole. But for that to happen Intel needs to move to 0.13u without copper, and add copper a few months later. Since these clearly must be parallel efforts, (given that copper is in Intel's road map for next year, and that Intel won't qualify a 0.13 Al line and then turn around and redo it with copper) the big questions are:

A) Can Intel transition to .13 and copper at the same time,

b) And can anyone do .13 without copper? IBM says no. MOT says no.

Are there any process people who care to comment?
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