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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?
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To: muckraker71 who wrote (3761)8/14/2000 8:03:06 PM
From: Trader Dave  Read Replies (2) of 6974
 
mr71, as a sebl ex, you really view oracle as a competitive threat? Do you expect them to do as well as they did in the erp market? Are you talking about oracle as a threat from a product standpoint or overall?

Is it really possible for oracle to undo the damage they did to the SI channel? (If they manage to start undoing the damage, my guess is it would take 5 or so years from now to completely repair....but as an SI with a monsterous SEBL practice why bother with building out a redundant practice?)

Are you aware of any single large scale Oracle CRM deployment that's running? My problem with Larry and all of his outright Clintons about the CRM and Supply Chain markets is that you will never know the truth without talking to customers. I'm looking, but I can't find them.

I'm sure Syborg was talking about year over year revenue growth. To be safe with an investment at these valuations it is only rational to plan for some valuation compression.

While I agree with Greg that the stock could use some time to digest, I can't see that you can readily predict WHEN or HOW that would occur. My only certainty is that any valuation compression WON'T be orderly or predictable.

But, if SEBL can grow in the 100% range for 2 years (A MASSIVE challenge even if the market opportunity is there.) there is a lot of room for compression in valuation and making profits as a long term owner.

Greg's TA is very thoughtful and perhaps useful as a trading vehicle, but I still assert that thoughtful long term low turnover investors will massively outperform traders.

TD
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