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Technology Stocks : Net Perceptions, Inc. (NETP)
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To: rupert1 who wrote (2696)8/15/2000 1:44:33 AM
From: Carl R.   of 2908
 
I think we understand each other. The problem of course is that neither of us can prove the reason why NETP is behaving as it is. I suppose if the etailers move up and NETP follows that would buttress my argument, and if NETP moves up on a news announcement that would support yours.

it appears that you are much more influenced by what you think market sentiment is going to be than by what you think earnings are going to be

I do factor this in a bit, but mostly I rely on my projections for future growth and earnings. I sold at 41 because I didn't believe that the future earnings of NETP would support such a high price at least until 2001 or so. You are correct that my initial buy was the suspect trade, and I really can't justify paying 19 for NETP last year, though the purchase did work out fine.

As for the SPO, I really have not made any effort to determine whether or not NETP had ample cash prior to the SPO or not, so I'll take your word for it that they did. Nevertheless issuing share at 41 certainly increases the book value per share, and that usually provides good downside protection. With $4.50/share in cash I believe that the stock is trading at $4.50 for the cash and $6.50 for the business. I have no doubt that the business is worth $6.50.

As for the stock price, I have no elaborate scenarios for the coming months. I expect the company to continue to grow, and to move towards profitability. At some point I expect the stock to move up, but I'm not too concerned about when.

Good luck,

Carl
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