Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (70954)	8/15/2000 5:30:33 PM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Jim API's really not that bad when considering a huge downward revision last week. Not reporting a big prior revision is very misleading. John Crude excluding PADD 5 up 5.2 milln PADD 1 heat stocks +1.7mil PADD 1 gas stocks - .377 Implied gas demand 9.15 vs 8.75 Implied Heat demand 3.73 vs 3.82 Crude stocks 286.401 vs 319.163 LY Gas stocks 202.508 vs 207.013 LY Heat stocks 113.229 vs 138.738 LY Crdue imports 9.204 vs 9.357 LW Product imports 2.126 vs 2.336 AGA guess from Brige for WED a draw of 50 to 65 BCF Revision to Crude stockpile: Last Week Crude stocks were at 282.602, however this number was revised down to 278.997. Thus 282.602mil bbls - 278.997mil bbls = -3.605 downward revision. Hence: 286.401(new) - 278.997(old)= Build of 7.4 mil bbls In reality the build should be interpreted as: 286.401(new) - 282.602(old) = +3.79, which is close to guesses, but nonetheless a build Checking the math: 7.4mil bbl build - 3.605 = +3.79 build for the week ending Aug. 11. I will analyze more in a second. For example, there was a heat build, but it did little to shrink the year over year deficit. Supplyside

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