There is precedent that the "live by the sword, die by the sword" mentality doesn't prevail in corporate bankruptcies;i.e. the absolute priority rule is not invoked rigorously. The precedents are one of the reasons that I think the common will retain some value.
Shorting at $C3.00. That's ~$2.50 US? Sounds like a good bet to me.
I agree that there won't be a IPO (beauty contest), but after the new issuance, the securities (stock) must be marketable; i.e. it must trade on an exchange.
I doubt that your bonds will be partially redeemed in cash. However, I do agree with the remainder of your scenario,new debt and equity.
The original deadline for the plan was June, 2000. That was extended. I don't see why the Dec 31,2000 deadline wouldn't also be extended. In spite of the rhetoric, I don't see where the interested parties have it in their best interest to expedite the process. The longer it takes the plan to materialize, the more time LWN has to strengthen its financial position. I don't see how the courts can put pressure on the parties. Have you seen the volumes of documents for this case? It would take a panel of judges, working full time, just to read the documents and keep up with the filings.
The plan is being developed by the unsecured creditors committee. So I doubt that the company will propose a plan that is objected to by creditors. My SAWG is that the plan is at least a year away, and will be adopted by the first impaired class and the court.
No, we're sure not on internet time.
Roger |
