I've started to follow this thread few weeks ago, like it and thanks.
Regarding the warning from Telcom semiconductor, it shouldn't come as a surprise, as all mayor handset cos already signaling a slow down. I think many investors still in denial mode.
IMHO, three market segment are driving the semicoductor industry for past two years, PC(mature tech, but was growing fast last 2 yrs as many upgrade their PCs), wireless(much IC contents), and broadband.
I upgrade my PC to 550M last year and don't think I'll upgrade it anytime soon, simply because it's more than adequate for me.
Celluar phone, my family using several of them, and don't think we'll buy new one anytime soon because the current new features haven't up to a level we think we need a upgrade, probably wait till 3G?
Broadband is the only area that I think I'll put some money into, eg. DSL or cable modem. Problem is we don't have either one of these in my area.
So with 2 of the 3 driving forces slowing down, I just don't think it's worth a risk to invest in semi now. I've been mostly in semi for some time and almost totally got out of it in July, right now only holding GNSS and SIMG, two IC companies in Flat Panel Display/Digital CRT area, as I think people will look for style in PC area, like getting a cool FPD.
The real pain in semis will probably shown up in Q3/Q4, many still doubt if we're going to have one anytime soon. |
