Chip industry warned to brace for
imminent downturn
By EBN staff
Electronic Buyers' News
(08/15/00, 05:10:17 PM EST)
While most pundits see nothing but robust growth ahead for the
semcionductor industry, one analyst is projecting a downturn by
next year.
Citing the classic signs of a cycle shift, Advanced Forecasting Inc.
today warned of an industry-wide recession in early 2001. One
early indicator of stagnation ahead, according to AFI: worldwide
equipment sales leveled off in May and June at approximately
April's $4.75 billion-per-month level.
“We are referring to a significant slowdown affecting most of the
segments in the IC industry,” said Moshe Handelsman, president
of AFI, Cupertino, Calif.
AFI's long-term quantitative forecasts indicate a slower rate of
growth in the second half of 2000, followed by “less encouraging”
results in 2001, the market research firm said.
This view is in sharp contrast to general agreement in the industry
that a downturn will not occur before 2002 or 2003. AFI is advising
its clients to watch for signs of double bookings, and inflated sales
forecasts from component vendors and OEMs. |
