Aug. 16, 2000, CNC Morning NEWS and REVIEW
Again I am going to make liberal use of well thought posts
At YAHOO CNC thread:
messages.yahoo.com
The shorts are out of aces.
I have to believe that the shorts have now gotten everything they hoped for, except a drop in price.
The latest 10-Q finally is showing a clear picture of CNC, and the stock just isn't dropping.
I think it has to be that there just aren't many more shares to sell.
I'm sure the shorts hoped that this clear picture of the Conseco status would send the stock price realing.
But it just hasn't happened, and they're short 25% of the shares of the stock.
They'll have to start covering big-time soon.
The bottom line for the next 12-18 months is this:
Debt of $1.4 billion versus assets of $2 billion. Not a dire situation.
The only question is whether they can roll the debt for another 12 months or so.
I have to think Gary Wendt had that problem basically solved before he came on board.
Also, none of the creditors involved would have anything to gain from the collapse of Conseco.
Shorts are out of aces, and I believe they're quickly running out of luck
. Gary promised some answers before the end of this month.
The only question remaining is whether he's going to deliver on his promise.
I tend to think he will.
by: ReSwat (33/M/St. Louis)
messages.yahoo.com
ANOTHER HINT
Don't worry about the 10q and what it said.
They have to say certain things which they did.
If you focus on it you miss the big picture.
The 10q is a snapshot of what is occurring right then-not now.
Wendt told you not to worry about the debt.
Hint-would he say something he knew was wrong?
Wendt is doing his thing----watch for the announcements.
You are seeing the organization get set. It takes some time.
But read slowly and listen.
Another HINT-nobody on this Board knows what is going on behind the scenes
--well----the loud ones do not.
People are working very hard and quickly--and nobody can say they know---not Mr. Pinky--
Another HINT-more to come.....
by: infewords
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messages.yahoo.com
Put the following in order of occurence
Sale of Tritel
Sale of Argosy
Sale of other targeted assets
Bank loan restructuring
Lehman loan restructuring
Reinsurance deal
Short covering
Massive short covering
by: LAZ_BROKER (M/Denver CO)
We had a great article by J.Dorfman where he thinks CNC is A great buy!!!
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8/15/00 Bloomberg: Novell, Conseco Are Among the True Stock Bargains:J.Dorfman
cnetinvestor.com
Novell, Conseco Are Among the True Stock Bargains: John Dorfman
8/15/00 10:44:00 AM
Source: Bloomberg News
(Commentary. John Dorfman, president of Dorfman Investments in Boston,
is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.
His firm or its clients may own or trade investments discussed in this column.)
Boston, Aug. 15 (Bloomberg)
-- To invest successfully, one trap you have to avoid is what I call the ''oriental rug fallacy.''
Ads for oriental rugs perennially stress the percentage
markdown from the original list price.
This one is 50 percent off, that one is 70 percent off,
yet another is 80 percent off. What bargains!
What nonsense.
The value of a rug isn't determined by the percentage
markdown from an original price that may have been
ridiculously puffed up. It is determined by the quality of the rug,
and by what it costs compared with other rugs of
similar quality.
Same thing in the stock market. The mere fact that a stock
has been ''marked down'' from $100 to $50 a share doesn't
make it a bargain. What matters is whether the stock
presents a good value based on current and estimated
earnings, book value (corporate net worth) and the like.
Here are four stocks that I think represent genuine
bargains right now: BMC Software Inc., Computer Associates Inc.,
Novell Inc. and Conseco Inc.
I selected them by using Bloomberg stock screening software
to comb through some of this year's biggest losers
-- the stocks that have been ''marked down'' 50 percent or more.
Among the 1,467 U.S. stocks with a market value of
$1 billion or more,
there were 76 stocks that
were down that much.
Stock Screens
I don't believe there are anywhere near 76 genuine bargains
in this rug store, however. After I imposed a series of
not-very- demanding statistical tests
(price-earnings ratio less than 20,
price-book ratio of 3 or less,
price-sales ratio of 3 or less,
and long-term debt less than stockholders' equity),
fewer than a dozen candidates remained.
I sifted them down to the following four:
Conseco, based in Carmel, Indiana, may be the most
speculative of the lot.
Under Stephen C. Hilbert, who was CEO from 1988 until
April, Conseco acquired a long string of insurance
companies (many of them mediocre), using its high- flying
stock as currency. It then centralized many of the
companies' operations and cut costs to improve profits.
New CEO
Conseco's accounting was widely viewed as aggressive,
and Hilbert's compensation (he received more than
$13 million a year for three years running) as excessive.
The company also took on a fair amount of debt, which
recently amounted to 174 percent of stockholders' equity.
Now, thanks to one last acquisition that blew up in its
face -- Green Tree Finance Corp., for which the company
paid $6 billion -- Hilbert is out and a new management
team is in.
Gary Wendt, a respected finance man from
General Electric Co., is the new chief executive.
I think if anyone can turn Conseco around, Wendt is the guy.
I first wrote about Conseco in this column
in November 1997, when the stock was at $46.
''Personally, I've never liked Conseco,''
I wrote at the time. ''
It has always seemed to me that too much of its earnings
have come from financial engineering, that the companies it
keeps acquiring are often of dubious quality, and that
chief executive Stephen Hilbert's pay is excessive.''
Today, you can pick up shares of Conseco for $7.50 apiece,
down 84 percent from when I made those harsh remarks
33 months ago.
But if I hated the stock at $46, I like it at prices under $8.
(John Dorfman can be reached at jdorfman@bloomberg.net or
Dorfman Investments, 101 Federal Street, Suite 1900, Boston, Massachusetts 02110.)
Let us not forget that Lehman has an OUTPERFORM BUY II on CNC
==============================================================
7/26/00 Message 14109720
And that there is NO intention by Wendt to dilute shareholder equity:
=============================================================
7/24/00 Cnet : ''We're not going to be diluting shareholder value at ridiculously low prices,'' Wendt said.
cnetinvestor.com
messages.yahoo.com
Aug. 15, 2000, Bloomberg:
James Rosensteele, a Conseco spokesman, said the company had no plans to issue new equity.
cnetinvestor.com
A NOTE
SmartMoney LIED and/or was MISINFORMED
When it said Wendt “ didn’t give up anything to come to CNC “
messages.yahoo.com
=====================================================
Ultimately the fate of Wendt and thus indirectly CNC rests
on two things :
Integrity and reliablilty .
And I believe Wendt has both,
TA
************************************************************** $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ **************************************************************
CNC Balance Sheet
conseco.com
CNCRestructuringProgram.com
quicken.com
**************************************************************
CNC CHART & Technical Analysis
CHART
stockcharts.com[L,A]DCCLYYMY[DC][PB10!B20!B30!B50!F][VC60][IUH14,3!LI14,3!LC20!LK14!LA12,26,9]
SI CHART
siliconinvestor.com
MONEY FLOW Stats by Softechie Aug 8, 3000 :
Message 14184790
*************************************************************************
MAJOR RECENT ARTICLES ON CNC
====================================
moneynet.com@NEWS-P2&Index=1&HeadlineURL=../News/NewsHeadlines.asp&DISABLE_FORM=&NAVSVC=News\Company
Aug 9 (Reuters) - Conseco Finance, fixed final terms for its 2000-4 series $1.2 billion
nine-tranche asset-backed bond launched on August 4.
Rating Aaa/AAA/AAA
ragingbull.altavista.com
Aug. 9,: A consortium of eight insurance companies has completed a $40.5 million investment in
affordable-housing projects across the state, the first test of an effort to get insurers
to voluntarily invest in community development.
ragingbull.altavista.com
Aug. 4, 2000: Conseco prices senior classes of $1.2 bln ABS deal favorably
ragingbull.altavista.com
Aug. 4, 2000:Conseco Capital Management Names New Co-Portfolio Managers
for Conseco High Yield Fund
ragingbull.altavista.com
Aug. 4, 2000: Dow Jones Newswires
Conseco Promotes From Within After High-Yield Exodus
7/27/00 BUSINESS WIRE:
CONSECO Announces Restructuring Program ,Parts I, II, III & IV , from RB
ragingbull.altavista.com
quicken.com
DOW JONES NEWSWIRE 7/27/00:COMPLETE EPS REPORT
1: dowjones.work.com
2: dowjones.work.com
3: dowjones.work.com
7/24/00 BLOOMBERG: WENDT GETS RID OF LEOPARD CHAIR AND .......PROTECTS SHAREHOLDER EQUITY:
quote.bloomberg.com
. 7/19/2000 WENDT HIRES Ex-GE CRISIS TEAM
biz.yahoo.com
7/12/2000 20 MILLION PAID TO HIRE WENDT
Wendt gets 45 mill less than if he had stayed at the Golf Course and got paidby GE to non - compete and do nothing. GE gets 10 mill CNC shares,
will make another killing.
messages.yahoo.com
6/30/2000 WENDT BACK FROM HONEYMOON messages.yahoo.com
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VARIOUS CNC INVESTORS
*****************************
GABELLI FUND UP 23% has 9% of position in CNC:
messages.yahoo.com
PROFIT VALUE FUND: 4 star Morningstar rating.
In last 3 months has added new position in Conseco,
to make in 8th largest position;
position similar in size to its holding in Berkshire.
messages.yahoo.com
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BROKERS’ and ANALYSTS ‘ OPINION
8/15/00 Bloomberg: Novell, Conseco Are Among the True Stock Bargains:J.Dorfman
cnetinvestor.com
Message 14220318
8/10/2000Gary Smith from REALMONEY.COM at The StreetCom
puts a buy on CNC with a stop at 7.
Anyway, here are a few charts to look at as you sip your morning Cafe Yukon:
thestreet.com
ragingbull.altavista.com
thestreet.com
8/5/00 S & P raises Outlook to highest, 5 ( on scale 1 to 5 )
messages.yahoo.com
7/30/00 STANDARD AND POOR UPGRADES CNC TO 4 STARS FROM 3 STARS
Message 14133330
7/31/00 Merrill Lynch messages.yahoo.com
.7/26/00 LEHMAN MAINTAINS OUTPERORM II ON CNC Message 14109720
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OVERVIEW of CONSECO INSURANCE RATINGS =========================================
conseco.com
RATING AGENCIES , MOODY’S, S & P etc
========================================
Aug. 11. 2000:Conseco 2000-4 $1.2B Manufactured Hsg Contract P-T Rtd By Fitch
Message 14200638
biz.yahoo.com
Aug. 11, 2000: Fitch Downgrades Conseco Rtgs
biz.yahoo.com
Message 14200576
S & P
============================
www2.marketwatch.com
ragingbull.altavista.com
S&P cuts Conseco Fin status
Aug. 8, 2000--3:18 pm - By Chris Kraeuter
Conseco Finance's credit rating status was revised to "negative" from "developing" by Standard & Poor's. According to a S&P statement, S&P "believes Conseco Finance's creditworthiness is severely limited by a lack of funding flexibility and aggressive leverage." Also, S&P cited its belief that the finance unit will not be sold to a "higher-rated" entity in the foreseeable future. Conseco Finance's ratings were placed on "developing" on March 31. Conseco's (CNC: news, msgs) ratings status was placed on "negative" on April 7. Currently, Conseco shares are down 1/16 to 7 7/8 on volume of 2.8 million shares.
ragingbull.altavista.com
Comment from RB poster on above S & P reports:
messages.yahoo.com
8/9/00 1:58:00 PM : Business WireS&P Places Various Green Tree Cert Rtgs on Watch Neg
The revision in the CreditWatch status reflects the increasing likelihood that
Conseco Finance will not be sold to a higher-rated entity in the foreseeable future.
ragingbull.altavista.com
Comment from RB poster on above S & P reports:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MOODY’S
=======================
quote.bloomberg.com
. " While Moody's said it expects the company and its bank lenders to reach a satisfactory agreement,
it said the details of such an agreement and the effects on Conseco's operations remain uncertain.
moodys.com
New York, June 30, 2000 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the credit ratings of
Conseco, Inc. and its affiliates (senior debt rating to Ba3 from Ba1).
moodys.com
New York, April 20, 2000 -- Moody's Investors Service lowered the senior
unsecured debt ratings of Conseco, Inc. and Conseco Finance to Ba1 from Baa3.
MORNINGSTAR/FINANCIAL
============================
messages.yahoo.com
Morningstar grades CNC a B-, for financial health, just slightly below average
for insurance industry and average for universe of stocks.
DALBAR Insurance Rating Web site
================================
Part 1
messages.yahoo.com
Part 2
messages.yahoo.com
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VARIOUS OTHER ISSUES IN CNC:
**************************************************************
ISSUE OF PRODUCING A GIANT SHORT SQUEEZE:
================================================
First, to effect a short squeeze in CNC and see a giant squirt
of cash upwards in your CNC stock:
b) ask your broker to put the stock out of Street name, or
b) ask your broker to put a sell price “ good till cancelled “
at let’s say $40 or $50. That will remove it from the short pool..
c) or simply ask him to restrict it, ie you don’t want to have it
loaned out for shorting.
Aug: 11, 2000:REUTERS: "Liquidator" Jacobs bets on insurer's turnaround
biz.yahoo.com
Message 14172703
CNC in WORTH Magazine via Maverick Capital's Hedge Fund Manager - Lee Ainslie.
Ainslie is a noted short seller who has averaged 24.8% after fees with $5B under management.
He has covered his CNC position: “ I am not going to go
Against somebody of Wendt’s reputation “.
8-1-00 Star Tribune: Neal St. Anthony/On Business:
Jacobs roars, short sellers yawn
startribune.com
7/31/00 J.J. CRAMER FROM TheStreetCom editorializes: “ A great Idea !!!”
ragingbull.altavista.com
7/27/00 IRWIN JACOBS WANTS TO PRODUCE A SHORT SQUEEZE.
……….He puts this Ad in WallStJ. then other papers
messages.yahoo.com
streetmonkey.com
PERSONAL on Irwin Jacobs
IRWIN JACOBS PICTURE : interactive.wsj.com
Angling for Tie-Ins, Irwin Jacobs Took Up Big-Time Bass Fishing
interactive.wsj.com
Message 14204449
An introductory song about short covering:
amazon.com
messages.yahoo.com
========================================================
CURRENT SHORT INTEREST
is ! 64, 000, 000 shares accordint to Wall St. Jour.
But could be much higher, 78,211,523 shares
According to this web site:
trading-ideas.com
Shorting Rules
ragingbull.altavista.com
BOOKS ON SHORTING
========================
(We encourage would be shorts to read these
and go ahead short some more and make
Mr.Wendt’s Day when the big squeezarooo comes along).
capatcolumbia.com
” Bad “ Shorting Advice from Mr.P$nk
=====================
“Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments “
in SI Thread, by Mr. P$nk Esq.
Message 14187856
MISCELLANEOUS SHORTING
===============================
CNC Stock Analysis of the day by paulthebigfinn at YAHOO board
messages.yahoo.com
**************************************************************
7/22/2000 ISSUE OF CNC BANKRUPTCY
or of DILUTION of SHAREHOLDER EQUITY
======================================
Part I messages.yahoo.com.
Part II messages.yahoo.com.
messages.yahoo.com.
7/28/00 :ISSUE of FABER CNBC REPORT & CONTROVERSY
( ie that Wendt is going to dilute shareholder equity ?).
ragingbull.altavista.com
7/29/00 reply by ta to FABER Report: CNBC FABER is either LYING or MISINFORMED
messages.yahoo.com
7/24/00 Cnet : ''We're not going to be diluting shareholder value at ridiculously low prices,'' Wndt said.
cnetinvestor.com
messages.yahoo.com
7/31/00 FABER CORRECTS HIMSELF: “ CNC WILL N O T ISSUE ANY N E W EQUITY “.
boards.cnbc.com
Thank you Mr. FABER.
**************************************************************
ISSUE OF MR.T.LEE'S PREFERRED STOCK
=========================================
messages.yahoo.com
messages.yahoo.com
ISSUE of VALUE of PREFERRED STOCK
======================================
messages.yahoo.com
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LAWSUITS, INTERNET AND CNC
=================================
8/14/00 CNC hires David Herzog as V.P. and General Counsel
Message 14211926
From Law firm Baker and Daniels
a very large Indianapolis firm:
bakerdaniels.com
REVIEW OF RECENT INTERNET LAWSUITS:
-------------------------------------------------------------
Message 14157877
Friday August 4, H-Quotient, Inc., Files Suit Against Alleged Stock Manipulators Message 14173025
The most recent Lawsuit won by Biometrix
Message 14158321
And just before that New subpoenas on the way
biz.yahoo.com
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NEGATIVE ARTICLES ON CNC
======================================
7/27/00 TheStreetCom: Herb's Hotline: Oversight by Conseco?
thestreet.com
7/10/00 TheStreetCom: Conseco Sets Rich Pay Package for New CEO, By Peter Eavis
Message 14023449
7/11/00 Herb's Hotline: Will These Conseco Capers Never Cease?
By Herb Greenberg
thestreet.com
&/14/00 Bloomberg :Conseco Outdoes Itself in Piling Gifts on Wendt:
by Graef Crystal
ragingbull.altavista.com
7/31/00 Warburg initiates coverage with hold;
messages.yahoo.com
7/31/00WSJ Colin Devine from Smith Barney is worried about CNC
messages.yahoo.com
messages.yahoo.com
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MISCELLANEOUS
**********************
MISCELLANEWS CNC NEWS
August 11, 2000: Dow Jones News: Conseco Preferred gains in NYSE
Message 14204249
August 11, 2000: Dow Jones News:
CNC FLEXIBLE PORTFOLIO MUTUAL FUNDS TOP PERFORMANCE
Message 14204221
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WHY I INVEST IN CONSECO
ragingbull.altavista.com
.WHAT IS CNC REALLY WORTH?
View from a competitor Mr>Nauert, CEO of CERES:
starnews.com
A note from RB about who Nauert is:
ragingbull.altavista.com
WHO IS GARY WENDT
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MAGAZINE ARTICLES ON GARY WENDT
===================================
Aug. 7, 2000 :BUSINESS WEEK
ragingbull.altavista.com
My comments on Business Week Article: Music…Music…Music..
Message 14127197
1997 FORBES/GECAPITAL: " BLOWING BUBBLES "
forbes.com
PREVIOUS REVIEW POSTS ON GARY WENDT
=======================================================
. July 5, 2000: REVIEW OF GARY WELCH LIFE AND ARTICLES
Message 13993832
July 10, 2000: W S J : GE Capital’s Wendt: " A BRUTAL NEGOTIATOR "
Message 14023303
WENDT'S BUSINESS CARD
********************************
I am responsible for 38% of GE's net income:
GE’s profit has come increasingly from Financial Services
That’s GECapital, the company I run, at GE:
businessweek.com
And here how I compare with the giants:
Revenues
quicken.com
Cash Flow
quicken.com
Net Income
quicken.com
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TA |
