Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 203.14

-0.8%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Mani1 who started this subject	8/16/2000 2:57:09 PM
From: AK2004	Read Replies (1) of 275872

01:26pm EDT 16-Aug-00 Chase H&Q (Sudeep Balain) INTC MOT NOK ATML STM AMD INTC. ............... * What we have attempted to do in this note is to quantitatively go from the amount of capital expenditure that the semiconductor equipment people have talked about spending on flash in the year 2000 and translate the capacity additions/increases into actual flash revenues that will come on line moving forward. * The obvious exercise here is to figure out quantitatively and logically, as to when and how much more NOR type flash capacity is going to be coming on line based on the capital expenditure plans of year 2000. * The net of our exercise (discussed in detail below) concludes that there will be about $4.0B worth of total flash (NOR type only) in dollars coming on line primarily starting 2H:01. * By next year we expect the flash market to have grown from about $10.0B in 2000 to about $15.0B in 2001 (which could prove to be conservative). * By our estimates then, definitely through middle of 2001 (next 4Q's, as we have been saying) and perhaps well through end of 2001, the NOR flash market will still be in a supply constrained mode. * Among the stocks that we cover, we believe that AMD and ATML are probably the best positioned to take the maximum advantage of their large exposure to this exploding NOR flash marketplace moving forward. We would use this current misunderstanding of the flash market segment as an aggressive buying opportunity. * From an overall perspective our favorite names (all Strong Buys) continue to be AMD (Price Target $150), INTC ($100), and ATML ($60).

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