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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc
ATHM 23.10-1.5%Dec 3 3:59 PM EST
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To: gpowell who wrote (24731)8/16/2000 11:40:44 PM
From: E. Davies  Read Replies (3) of 29970
 
Nice data. Thanks for the effort.

You do understand of course that a critical part of why AOL has been able to grow at an exponential pace is because they have a trivially simple self install process.

You "forgot" to extend out the line as to what happens if ATHM keeps growing at only 300k/quarter.

Instead of 3M projected for 2000 you get 2.4
Instead of 6M projected for 2001 you get 3.6
Instead of 10M projected for 2002 you get 4.8
Instead of your projection of 20Million for quarter #33 you get 9 million

Gee- 9 million subscribers in 2007! less than 1/2 the size AOL is now. I'd sure be willing to pay $6 billion for that now. Well- maybe not.

And another thing- what do you think the "other" 11 million subscribers that would have signed up with @home will do? Go somewhere else of course. Not delayed- lost forever.

In reality of course manual install would be able to ramp to maybe 500k/quarter in a year or two. Do the math-it's still far below projections and @home would always be second tier.

Not my vision. In my vision @home is the premier internet service in the entire world. They replace AOL.

Of course having given up the rest of the world to "Excite Chello" might have blown that vision already.

Eric
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