Revenues in the 3rd Q.
Here is my early estimate of what the Q3 production might be worth in terms of revenues:
1. Hurricane's production average: 90,000 bopd
2. Kazgermunai's production average: 6,000 bopd (purchased)
3. Lukoil's (half) production average: 12,500 bopd (purchased)
In 92 days, total production could be 108,500 bopd times 92, which is roughly 10 million barrels.
If Brent holds at US$ 26, (currently around US$ 30), Hurricane may get an average sale price of US$ 16.
That would make the total marketed production worth about US$ 160 million in Q3.
Your remark about a billion $/year company seems to be quite realistic, the current production at current prices is worth about US$ 640 million/year, which is Can$ 950 million.
If the basic net income just holds at the Q2 level of US$ 0.61/share during the second half of the year, we may get US$ 2.00 in 2000, even after all restructuring costs(0.75 + 0.61 + 0.61 = 1.97). That is roughly Can$ 3.00, and the TSE closing price of Can$ 6.45 represents a forward looking P/E of 2.15 .
I stand behind my research in ornithology.
Forecaster |
