Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 322.32

-5.6%

Jan 30 9:30 AM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (36603)	8/17/2000 11:48:05 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (3) of 70976

Cary, Now that AnalCysts, institutions and fund managers have resumed their exuberance for equipment stocks, are you still upset with this thread's optimists for influencing your hold decision? Your comment makes me think that you're a closet day trader. :-) How big a step is it from attempting to perfectly time intra-year cycles to intra-quarter and ultimately day trading? I'd be happy to sell a little early once; just prior to the inevitable capacity overbuild. And I'm becoming less confident that the overbuild is inevitable. Larger fabs are being added by fewer players. But these larger fabs are a smaller percentage of the total base. And as the chip market grows, that will become increasingly true. Thus, an oversupply of 20,000 wafers / month would not be as devastating nor last as long as was the case a decade ago. In short, I expect that we'll see a dampening of the cycles. Yes there will still be cycles, but it's quite possible they won't be anywhere near as severe as was the case. FWIW, Ian. At that time, tax considerations and irrational exhuberance on these threads and the lack of support of my plan, kept me in the 30%.

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