The webcast finished minutes ago. I would be interested in how others saw or heard it (I would think there will be a recording on the site eventually).
These are some first impressions, which are not comprehensive or even fully thought out:
MESSAGE
The financial markets have not understood NETP products especially (a) their unique design (b) how they work together to work with people, products and process in transactional-based solutions for customers (c) how they are the only products that can solve some problems (d) how NETP rarely meets any competition (e) how large the market is. The challenge to the financial analysts was to study and understand the products.
In terms of the market for products NETP's only weakeness was the lack of a coordinating program - a "pretty face" of the kind CRM companies have in the form of a platform. This will be put right in 4Q with the introduction of the Personalization Manager.
There is strong growth in every area.
Forward guidance for 4 following quarters was profitability in 2001, strong improving trends on all the fundamentals and this guidance was based on forecasting methods which were also improving.
The ASP business is a major layer on the top of the existing business.
There will be acquisitions with the $100 million and partnerships to expand the markets that they serve.
They will stress "personalisation" less - and not rely so much on the summits (although there is to be one in London in September and in Asia this Fall as well as the USA) because NETP is not just about personalization. It is about profitable transactions.
They claimed very substantial pipeline in KD1 and I think they said the 3Q and 4Q would be "huge" in KM - but ask somebody else about that.
DELIVERY
It is hard to tell over a webcast. The audience seemed relaxed, it seemed friendly. A lot will depend on the private meetings.
As reported Van Tassel was excellent. The new COO Mosher is head and shoulders better than Steve Snyder in salesmanship. I was almost embarrased by his "hype" - never thought I would say that about a NETP executive. His grasp of detail and complexity was excellent - I feel very good about him. The CFO was very good, too, and his presentation ought to be made available in hard copy - not only for its analysis of the past figures and his guidance for the next four quarters but because it displayed an overall mastery of all the issues. As a whole, the team was very aggressive, very positive, almost demanding that NETP be respected. It also seemed to have integrity. The role of quarter-back seems to suit Steve Synder better, too - he comes across as a calm, rational figure with a vision and love of his company.
The "negatives" was that they seemed almost to be trying too hard, and one could identify with their straining to achieve figures that were small potatoes in absolute terms but large percentage increases in relative terms. Also, even while they did a good job, it is difficult to explain the products and I don't know whether the analysts grasped it. The questions were better than usual. There was an attempt to talk about the size of the market and the KM man actually put a dollar figure on it - 500 Fortune companies and $12 billion - but as far as I could tell not the same effort was made with the other products.
On a personal level, I was struck by how closely I had understood the company, the changes that ought to be made and that are being made and the trends. Despite all the nasty personal stuff flying around other boards, I was embarrassed that people should fight over what I know about the company and that it was my command of the knowledge that causes me to be arrogant and so on. The fact is that in my own estimation I knew less about NETP than about any other company I have invested in or am now invested in. My posting are a hobby - a distraction through the day from my main work, which is also at the computer. My posting are mainly linking to readily available information. It is in my interest that I learn more about it through interaction with knowledgeable others, and to share what I have discovered. This will probably incense my legion of critics, but one of the results of today is that I now feel that they were right. I did understand NETP - better than I thought I did. They are wrong about everything else. I have almost never posted on RB or Yahoo for any of the other stocks I own. I will revert to that sound practice. It is good to see SI NETP reviving. I know that most of the serious readers of Yahoo and RB lurk on SI. In some of the last few days SI has had more posts on NETP than any other board if you eliminate the spamming posts and personal stuff on other boards. I think that as the NETP message gets out this Fall the SI thread will have many new contributors.
I doubt that today's meeting will cause any quick recovery in the share price and the summer doldrums are a bigger influence. But I do think it was a powerful step forward and that there will be renewed confidence in the analyst community as well as new coverage. |
