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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 318.63-3.0%3:59 PM EST
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To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (4591)5/17/1997 12:53:00 AM
From: Kumar Nathan   of 70976
 
Tito:

As expected the stock hit the south a little bit. But I am not sure about next week. If there is downward trend, it is going to be a severe one. I wouldn't be surprised if DOW hit below 6600 mark.

I would like to analyze two or three scenerios of FED Action:

1.a 1/4 basis point raise in interest rate. This will be an immediate sell off. If anybody says that the market factored in all those things means they are IMO bull shitting.

2. If Fed increases the margin requirement. It is a major devastation. I wouldn't be surprized if market drops more than 1000 points. My numbers may appear to be exageration. My gut feeling is that Alan might do this. He has been hinting bankers that they have to watchful.

3. Combination of Rate hike & Margin requirement:. This will result in tail spin of a bull market.

4. No action by FED: Market will rally. But every economic indicator will take us Great America roller coaster ride.

My above scenerios and possible outcomes may appear to be more radical. But for analytical purposes I want to look at the worst case.

I would like to initiate this discussion and would like to know how AMAT will perform under those scenerios.

Please share your thoughts so that we can be prepared for next week.

Regards

Kumar.
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