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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (2672)	8/18/2000 9:37:05 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) of 33421

TW, This 10 Year Note Yield chart from 1994 to the present could tell a possibly more negative story, over the longer term. Contrasted to the more positive view of the 10 year note yield over the next 6 to 9 months, in which it should be able to break down out of the descending triangle and have the yield head lower. geocities.com notice how we broke a longer term downtrend and have hit our lows in yield twice this year at 5.72 which is in the area of the .382 retracement of the entire bear move in notes from Oct 5th 1998 to the high reached on Jan 20th. the same trendline can be seen on this longterm 10 Year Note yield chart from 1953 to the Present. geocities.com I have illustrated the 1 trendline which we have moved above for the first time since 1980 this past year, but I have shown how we have held a secondary trendline, and even if we are re-entering a longterm rise in rates (bond bear market) we could rally down to the 5.20 or 5.00 over the next year. So these longer term trendline violations will not govern the nearer term. Here is the 30 Year Bond Yield chart..note that we have broken a similar long term down trend from 1980 this past year geocities.com we are now back on this resistance line that comes down from 1980 to the present and this is trying to provide resistance and keep the long bond from declining in yield (rallying in price) over the next few months. this would give more support to the observations I made yesterday on the shorter term 10 year yield chart, that we may need to head back towards 6 % on the 10 year note over the next month or two. John

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