L.S.,
Those who have followed Cary's recommendations have prospered significantly. Even though I hold a sharply different view from Cary, I'd be reluctant to declare that he is flat out wrong. He has usually been flat out right.
That said, I've seen no evidence that Cary is reflecting anything but a set of quantitative analyses in his posts.
... and even those analyses seem to be somewhat suspect looking only at the sector's and the stocks' past history.
I would be more inclined to give Cary more credit if he could explain what adjustments he made for:
Lower inflation and inflation outlook than prior cycles;
Higher productivity growth and outlook for its growth than prior cycles;
Higher % of chips in Gross Global Product(if there is such an animal) than prior cycles;
Higher probability of sustained growth in the use of chip equipment;
Clearer view of technology and capacity drivers for the sector than prior cycles; [e.g. shrinks, demand, copper, 300mm, Low K dielectrics, CMP, Fab automation, ...]
All of the above present an argument that this cycle will last longer, grow faster, and be more profitable than prior cycles.
And if Cary or anyone else could clearly articulate the argument for throwing out these factors, I'd join him in the rush to sell my positions.
And I don't expect to be selling much within the next year or so.
FWIW,
Ian. |
