XICO Update:
I doubt that we will hear a CEO announcement before the end of September.
I posted the following on RB on May 31st.
"I see the effort XICO is focusing on their operational and executive transitions as very positive. Bruce is an "operations" and "process" guy. Coupling this with his extensive experience at XICO, makes Bruce an obvious asset in both transitions. Based on his current share ownership and potential worth of stock options, Bruce has plenty of selfish interest in making sure XICO succeeds. He also has his credibility as being a top executive on the line.
However, this is not to indicate the deal is a slam dunk; it's not. XICO has plenty of challenges and, like with all companies, their success is dependant on their execution. It appears that they have many of the factors critical for success and that they are well focused on acquiring those they lack. In this regard, I think modifications to the Board of Directors should be viewed as importantly as the CEO search. This said, the following is a more complete list of what I see as the top 7 Critical Success Factors:
- New and permanent CEO
- Additions or replacements to strengthen the BoD
- Complete transition to out source fab
- Sell CA fab
- New strategic design wins
- Introduction of new strategic products
- C7 yield and production volume"
I feel XICO has, thus far, scored about as well as I would expect in realizing these goals (about 1.5 out of 7). I also feel we will start hearing about some additional progress during the next six weeks. However, I think October news will be even better (including blow out Q3 EPS numbers).
Right now I think analysts would like to be more bullish, but they are scared about getting smacked with another surprise. From reading Wit SoundView's recent comments, I would say they are the most openly optimistic. Sudeep (CH&Q) has to still be strongly disappointed and would like to move, but probably still has the lowest published estimate.
Personally, I think we will definitely see at least $0.12 and I feel there's a very reasonable chance of seeing $0.16 for Q3 EPS. As a result, and baring any sudden overall market shifts, I think XICO could easily be in the low to mid teens before Halloween. Now, that's scary.
Regards, pmcw |
