SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Broadband Wireless Access [WCII, NXLK, WCOM, satellite..]
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: DubM who wrote (1306)8/18/2000 5:53:49 PM
From: Bernard Levy  Read Replies (1) of 1860
 
*Partly OT*

I think we are in the early stages of a major
bear market for telecom service providers.
We have already discussed interest rates
and lack of accessibility of the junk bond market
as well as pricing collapse in the long distance
voice market. I think that the market is now
pricing in a bandwidth glut (whether this glut is
real or imaginary remains to be seen). Let's face
it during the last few years every Tom, Dick and Harry
has been laying down fiber like crazy: we have
brand new networks in QWST, LVLT, WCG, GBLX, Broadwing,
TSIX in the US, and KNN-Qwest, VYTL, CONE, GTS in Europe,
with more over the horizon (Annunziata has reemerged
as Chairman of a new company which is again, laying down
fiber, several European startups have also been formed
in this area). The European wireless guys are spending money
on 3G auctions like drunken sailors. The market's reaction
is predictably to shut the door and pound all the
culprits into dust.

Ultimately, this will settle itself. If the supply
is shut off and the demand for BW keeps growing,
the survivors will make a lot of money. Thus, I
see during the next 18 to 24 months an opportunity
similar to the semis in Oct 98 or the oil services
companies in March 99. However, I do not think
the bottom will come any time soon. My guess is
that the bottom will probably occur during the
middle of next year if we have a steep market
correction or bear market. The sign of a bottom will
be like the semis in Oct 98 when the sector stops going down
even when other sectors are getting killed. Right
now telecom companies are getting killed even
when the market is fine.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News