Hi Geoff, Was Corvorting at briefing.com and thought this interesting comment on end of quiet period my be of interest to some of the board:
Quiet Period Expirations : There are 19 recent IPOs whose quiet periods are expiring early next week. Among them are some recent IPO darlings including Blue Martini (BLUE), Avici Systems (AVCI) and Corvis (CORV). With so many expirations, we recommend staying away as next week may not be the best week to use this strategy. A few weeks down the road, keep an eye this week's offerings as the quantity of offerings has slowed somewhat. If you do want to play this week, look for deals that are well below their offering price with a quality lead underwriter. If well below the offering, the analysts likely will be even that more bullish. If you are going to play it, some examples that fit these parameters are Evoke Communications (EVOK 5 1/32) led by Salomon Smith Barney and Interland, Inc. (ILND 7 5/16) led by Bear Stearns. .....We have discussed this strategy often, however, for the benefit of those subscribers that are new to our service...An aggressive strategy used by traders is to bid up shares of recent IPOs in the days leading up to the expiration of the quiet period. Sell-side analysts which have participated in the underwriting of an IPO are barred from making public statements for the first 26 days of trading. Traders buy before the expiration on the belief that analysts will be making positive comments about the company including an often lofty target price. A number of factors are important for picking the right one including: 1) how hot is the sector in which the IPO participates; 2) the quality of the lead investment banking firm (an IPO in a hot sector better have a top notch lead underwriter, otherwise it raises questions); 3) the amount the stock has already run; 4) size of the float; 5) what you think the premium will be on the price target (even if it has run, a high premium can spark a continued run); and 6) it is good to see stock make new highs right before coverage is initiated. (See Briefing.com's calendar for quiet period expirations.) -- Robert J. Reid, Briefing.com
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